FOLIO — PLATFORM PROBABILISTIC FINANCE™ · UA-FP&A™

One Probability Helm Stack.

Six Applications. Three commercial layers.

FinHelm is a unified probabilistic finance platform organized around one architecture, six Applications, and three commercial tiers. The user encounters one product. The architecture compounds beneath it.

FOLIO I THE POSITION

Probabilistic Finance™ is the next operating model.

FinHelm is the platform that ships it.

The legacy FP&A stack — Adaptive, Planful, Anaplan, Vena, Mosaic, Cube — was built around a single-point forecast that everyone knows is wrong but no one measures. FinHelm replaces the point estimate with the probability distribution as the unit of planning. Six pillars of intelligence around one calibrated forecast. Four user-facing metrics. A closed loop that gets better every period.

This page is the operational reading. The canonical methodology, the scientific foundations, and the four-axis intelligence frame live at /methodology. Here, the architecture is rendered as a product: six Applications across two categories, three commercial tiers, distributed where the CFO already works.

The argument for FinHelm fits on a single line: the data the platform needs already exists in the ledger, the math has been peer-reviewed for three centuries, and the technology to run the math in milliseconds converged in 2024 and 2025. Before that, probabilistic FP&A required a quant team and a six-figure budget. After it, it requires a CFO and twelve minutes. FinHelm is what closes that gap.

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FOLIO II THE ARCHITECTURE

Above any ERP.

Inside any AI interface.

FinHelm runs on a three-layer commercial architecture over a single canonical IP foundation. Layer 1 is the Helm Stack — six pillars, patent-protected, built once. Layer 2 is the surface — six Applications in two categories. Layer 3 is the commercial structure — three tiers from $49 to $2,500+.

THE PROBABILITY HELM STACK Six axes of intelligence around a single calibrated forecast. STABILITY FSI™ Lyapunov Exponent Theory PATENT · Family E MAGNITUDE UES™ Sharpe-Inspired Composite PATENT · Family D ATTRIBUTION AMI™ Graph-Theoretic Dependency PATENT · Family B SIMULATION SUBSTRATE Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation · 10K runs PATENT · — DATA SUBSTRATE ProbabilisticCell™ Probabilistic Data Model PATENT · Family A CALIBRATION Reflection Engine™ Bayesian Posterior Update PATENT · Family F HUB The Calibrated Probabilistic Forecast Read every spoke. Never sail blind. FINHELM CORP · MMXXVI · CANONICAL ARCHITECTURE

FIG. II.a · The Probability Helm Stack — the canonical Layer 1 architecture. Six pillars (UES™ · FSI™ · AMI™ · Reflection Engine™ over the Monte Carlo and ProbabilisticCell™ substrates). The full reading is at /methodology. On this page, the diagram is the foundation everything else assembles on.

Three Commercial Layers

The platform separates what the user pays for from what the user receives from what the platform actually does. This separation is not cosmetic. Each layer compounds independently — Core IP through accumulated calibration history (Reflection Engine™ gets better with every actual that lands), Applications through tier-by-tier feature density, Tiers through the upgrade narrative from Beacon to Compass to Command.

Layer III · Tiers commercial

Beacon · Compass · Command

Three commercial tiers that determine which Applications a user can access and at what depth. Beacon includes the entire Probabilistic Analysis category. Compass adds Probabilistic Planning. Command adds Reflection Engine™ closed-loop calibration depth on every Application, multi-entity rollups, and PE-specific capabilities.

Layer I · The Helm Stack foundation IP

Six pillars · Five patent families

UES™ (Magnitude) · FSI™ (Stability) · AMI™ (Attribution) · Reflection Engine™ (Calibration) over the Monte Carlo simulation substrate and the ProbabilisticCell™ temporal data substrate. The mathematical and architectural foundations every Application depends on. The deeper this layer runs, the harder displacement becomes.

FIG. II.b · The three-layer architecture. The user encounters one unified product. The architecture compounds beneath it.

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FOLIO III THE APPLICATIONS

Analysis answers what happened.

Planning answers what should happen next.

Six Applications organized into two categories that map to discrete phases of the FP&A workflow. The categories are stable. The third category — Probabilistic Reporting — is deferred to roadmap until the methodology can support it.

FIG. III.a · The Analysis Category

Probabilistic Analysis

Be the signal.

Beacon · $49 / mo

Three Applications for month-end close, board preparation, and covenant monitoring. The Analysis category answers the questions “what happened” and “why did it happen.” Every Beacon user gets all three Applications immediately at signup — no upgrade gate, no demo timer, no feature throttle.

FIG. III.a.1

Dashboard

Single canonical view of the methodology running. UES™ score, Monte Carlo confidence band, ranked variance drivers, calibration history snapshot — everything a CFO needs before the board meeting.

FIG. III.a.2

Variance Analyzer

Decompose variances into structural bias and stochastic noise. Rank drivers by contribution. Read narrative explanations of why the actual landed where it did. The end of “we missed by 12%” with no why.

FIG. III.a.3

Probabilistic Cash Runway

Cash runway as a confidence band, not a single date. P10 worst-case, P50 base, P90 upside. The number to tell the board, the number to tell the team, and the number to tell yourself — with explicit uncertainty.

FIG. III.b · The Planning Category

Probabilistic Planning

Find your direction.

Compass · $499 / mo

Three Applications for the budget cycle, scenario modeling, and driver analysis. The Planning category answers the question “what should happen next.” Compass users access all six Applications — the entire Analysis category plus the entire Planning category — without per-feature gating.

FIG. III.b.1

Scenario Builder

Build named scenarios with explicit driver assumptions. Compare scenarios against each other and against the base forecast. Every scenario carries its own UES™ score, its own confidence band, and its own narrative of what changed.

FIG. III.b.2

Planning Grid

Driver-based probabilistic planning. Every cell shows uncertainty. Every formula propagates distributions. The spreadsheet feel without the single-point delusion — built on the ProbabilisticCell™ primitive that distinguishes the platform. Includes a P&L view.

FIG. III.b.3

Driver Sensitivity

Tornado charts in burgundy. Which assumptions move the forecast most. Which drivers are signal and which are noise. The visualization that turns a CFO’s intuition about “where the risk lives” into evidence.

FIG. III.c · Two categories, six Applications, three-and-three symmetric. The tier mapping is one-to-one with the categories — Analysis is Beacon, Planning is Compass — which makes the upgrade narrative crisp.

FIG. III.d · The Free Entry Point

The Forecast Health Check Agent

A seventh experience surfaces outside the six-Application grid: the Forecast Health Check Agent. Available free at finhelm.ai/assessmenttwelve minutes from arrival to first probabilistic insight, no login required before the score reveal. The agent runs UES™ Lite on the last six months of budget-versus-actual data and returns a score, a band, and the four-component breakdown. It is the free entry point for Beacon.

Command, the third tier at $2,500+/mo, does not unlock new Applications. It unlocks depth — Reflection Engine™ closed-loop calibration on every Application, multi-entity rollups for parent-plus-PortCo structures, the five PE-specific capabilities, SSO/SAML, and dedicated CSM. The Compass-to-Command upgrade is not an addition. It is a deepening of every Application the user already has.

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FOLIO IV THE CONNECTIONS

Read your ledger.

Wherever it lives.

FinHelm runs above the ledger you already have. No migration. No new system of record. No IT project to start. The data flows in, the analysis runs, and the forecast is recalibrated to the actuals as they land — all without disturbing the system your finance team relies on to close the month.

Integrations are data adapters, not partnerships. The platform never depends on a single ledger. If your finance team operates across multiple systems — a holding-company QuickBooks, a portfolio NetSuite, a sister-entity Sage Intacct — FinHelm reads from all of them and produces one unified probabilistic forecast across the entire group.

QuickBooks Online

Live

DualEntry

Live

Rillet

Live

Sage Intacct

On roadmap

NetSuite

On roadmap

SAP Joule

On roadmap

Campfire

On roadmap

Xero

On roadmap

FIG. IV.a · FinHelm reads from any general ledger in the FP&A workflow. The architecture is integration-agnostic by design — the same Probability Helm Stack reads the same way regardless of which system the data originated in. CSV upload is supported for ledgers not yet on the active integration list.

For finance teams running on two or more ledgers, the multi-source read is one of FinHelm’s practical differentiators. The unified forecast carries the same UES™ score, the same Monte Carlo confidence band, and the same ranked driver list across every entity in the rollup. The board reads one number with one calibration history. The work happens once.

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FOLIO V THE TIERS

Three tiers.

Three categorically different jobs.

The three commercial tiers are not three sizes of the same product. Each tier answers a different question the finance function is asking. Beacon reads. Compass plans. Command runs the closed loop across multiple entities.

Tier I · Entry

Beacon

$49 / month

Be the signal.

The entire Probabilistic Analysis category. Dashboard, Variance Analyzer, Probabilistic Cash Runway. Forecast Health Check Agent. For finance teams who need to read what is happening — and explain it.

Tier III · Enterprise

Command

$2,500+ / month

Close the loop.

Compass plus Reflection Engine™ depth on every Application, multi-entity rollups, PE-specific capabilities, SSO/SAML, dedicated CSM. For organizations who treat calibration as governance.

FIG. V.a · Pricing detail, feature matrix, and the free Beacon entry option live at /pricing. The tier definitions above are canonical; the pricing page is the commercial reading.

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FOLIO — CLOSING · READ EVERY SPOKE

Get your UES™ score.

Twelve minutes. No login. The free Forecast Health Check at finhelm.ai/assessment is the fastest way to read where your forecasting system actually is.